A guideline from the 1990s 'Trinity study': withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year, and historically the money lasted at least 30 years in almost every U.S. market period. $1 million supports about $40,000 in year-one income.

How long will $500,000 last in retirement?

Withdrawing $2,500 per month ($30,000/yr, a 6% initial rate) with 5% returns and 3% inflation, about 22-23 years. At $20,000 per year (4% rule), it historically lasts 30+ years.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

Q: Is the 4% rule still safe?

It remains a reasonable starting point, though some researchers now suggest 3.5%-4% for longer retirements or high market valuations. Flexibility matters more than the exact number: cutting withdrawals modestly in bad market years dramatically improves survival odds.

Q: What withdrawal rate lets an $800,000 portfolio last exactly 30 years?

At a 6% nominal return and 2.5% inflation (about 3.4% real), the portfolio can support roughly $43,000 in year-one income, growing with inflation after that — an initial withdrawal rate near 5.4%, higher than the standard 4% rule because the return assumption here is more optimistic and the horizon is shorter than 'forever.'

Q: How does sequence-of-returns risk change this estimate?

This calculator assumes the same return every single year, but real markets don't work that way. Two retirees with the identical average return over 30 years can have very different outcomes: the one who hits a market downturn in the first few years of retirement depletes principal much faster than the one who gets the bad years later, because early losses are locked in while withdrawals are still being taken from a shrinking balance.

The question every retiree actually asks: how long will the money last? Model your withdrawals with returns and inflation, year by year.

Written by the Calculator Index team · Last reviewed September 2026

Your savings last

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Initial withdrawal rate

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4% rule income for this portfolio

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Total withdrawn

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Year	Annual withdrawal	Ending balance

How the simulation works

Each year: Balance = (Balance − Withdrawals) × (1 + return)
Withdrawals grow with inflation to keep purchasing power constant

Worked example

$500,000 · withdrawing $2,500/mo · 5% returns · 3% inflation:

The starting withdrawal rate is 6% — above the safe zone — and the money runs out in roughly 22 years. Trimming to $1,900/mo (a 4.5% initial rate) extends it past 30.

The 4% rule, and why flexibility beats precision

The Trinity study found that a 4% initial withdrawal, inflation-adjusted annually, survived essentially every historical 30-year U.S. period. That's the basis of the "25× your spending" retirement target (see the retirement calculator). Two honest caveats: this calculator uses constant returns, but real markets deliver bad years early sometimes — "sequence risk" — which can sink a plan that averages fine; and longer retirements (40+ years) argue for 3.5% starts. The best defense isn't a lower number, it's flexibility: skipping the inflation raise or trimming 10% in down years raises historical success rates dramatically. Compare the guaranteed-income alternative with the annuity calculator.

Worked example — reverse calculation for a fixed 30-year horizon

Instead of asking "how long will it last," suppose the question is reversed: how much can an $800,000 portfolio pay out per year if it only needs to last exactly 30 years, assuming a 6% nominal return and 2.5% inflation (about 3.4% real return)?

Using the standard fixed-term withdrawal formula (PMT = PV × i ÷ [1 − (1 + i)^−N]) with i = 3.4% real and N = 30 years: annual income ≈ $43,000 in today's dollars, growing with inflation — about $3,583/mo.

That's an initial withdrawal rate of 43,000 ÷ 800,000 = 5.4%, noticeably above the 4% rule's usual starting point. The higher rate is only reasonable because the plan targets a finite 30-year window rather than "never run out," and because the return assumption is more optimistic than the calculator's 5%/3% default above.

Years a portfolio lasts, by initial withdrawal rate

Initial withdrawal rate	Approx. years portfolio lasts
3%	50+ years
4%	~35 years
5%	~25 years
6%	~20-23 years
7%	~17 years

These figures assume the calculator's default 5% return and 3% inflation (roughly 1.9% real return) held constant every year — real portfolios won't behave this smoothly, which is exactly the sequence-risk problem discussed below.

Common retirement withdrawal mistakes

Ignoring sequence-of-returns risk. A retiree who hits a market downturn in the first few years of retirement can run out of money significantly faster than one with the same long-run average return but good years first — the order of returns matters as much as the average.
Never adjusting withdrawals in a down market. Rigidly taking the full inflation-adjusted amount every year regardless of portfolio performance is the single biggest driver of "plan failure" in historical studies — trimming spending 10% in a bad year measurably improves survival odds.
Confusing the withdrawal rate with the return rate. A 5% withdrawal rate isn't automatically "safe" just because average returns are also around 5% — inflation still erodes the balance, and withdrawals rise with it, so real (inflation-adjusted) return is what matters, not the nominal one.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?

Withdraw 4% in year one, adjust for inflation annually — historically lasted 30+ years. $1M → $40,000 starting income.

How long will $500,000 last?

About 22–23 years at $2,500/mo (5% returns, 3% inflation); 30+ years at the 4% rule's $1,667/mo.

Is the 4% rule still safe?

A reasonable start; 3.5–4% for long retirements. Spending flexibility in bad years matters more than the exact rate.

What withdrawal rate lets an $800,000 portfolio last exactly 30 years?

At 6% nominal return and 2.5% inflation (~3.4% real), about $43,000/yr, or 5.4% initially — higher than the 4% rule because the target horizon is fixed at 30 years rather than open-ended.

How does sequence-of-returns risk change this estimate?

This calculator assumes a constant return every year. In reality, a retiree who hits poor returns early in retirement depletes savings faster than one with the same average return but good years first — the order matters, not just the average.

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Note: Uses constant returns — real markets vary, and early losses (sequence risk) can shorten outcomes materially. Not financial advice. Last reviewed: September 2026.